Will materials processing drive global laser markets again in 2018?

材料加工會(huì)再次推動(dòng)2018全球激光市場(chǎng)嗎？
 

In the last blog, we covered how a few of the laser segments that did great in 2017 were performing so far in 2018. One was vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSEL) which gained popularity when Apple incorporated these lasers into its Face ID system, but to date, other companies have been slow to master the technology and include them in their phones, but Apple has stayed committed to Face ID. Apple’s use of OLED screens in the iPhone X also initially drove increased demand for excimer lasers in 2017. These lasers, which Coherent produces for the annealing of OLED screens, gained a very high profile in 2017, but since then, the high cost of the OLED screens has scared off Chinese phone manufacturers, and rumor is, even Apple might be retreating from OLED screens in hopes of containing costs. (Another rumor says Apple will use OLED screens for even more new iPhones this year, so go figure.)
 

在上一篇文章，我們談到了一些在2017表現(xiàn)驚艷的部分激光在2018年目前的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)。一個(gè)是在被蘋(píng)果引入其Face ID系統(tǒng)而大受關(guān)注的垂直腔面發(fā)射激光器（VCSEL），雖然到目前為止其他公司也慢慢掌握了這項(xiàng)技術(shù)并將其應(yīng)用到他們的手機(jī)中，但蘋(píng)果是鐵了心要發(fā)展它的Face ID。同樣，蘋(píng)果去年一開(kāi)始將OLED引入iPhone X時(shí)也提升準(zhǔn)分子激光器的需求。這些由相干公司生產(chǎn)，用于OLED屏幕退火的激光器在2017年也一度十分引人注目，但從那以后，OLED 屏幕高昂的成本勸退了中國(guó)的手機(jī)制造商們，而且據(jù)坊間傳聞，蘋(píng)果為了控制成本或許也將棄用OLED 屏幕。（另一個(gè)傳言稱(chēng)蘋(píng)果今年將用OLED 屏幕生產(chǎn)更多的新款iPhone，所以這些消息看看就行了。）
 

 

A third segment that performed incredibly well in 2017 was materials processing, specifically high-powered lasers for materials processing produced by companies such as nLight, IPG, Lumentum, Wuhan Raycus, and Coherent. This segment of lasers will be the topic of what is being discussed today. For reference, in 2017, total revenue for the macro (1KW+) materials processing laser segment was $2.30 billion dollars, which was a 54% increase over 2016 laser revenue in the same segment. Keep in mind, a typical yearly increase in high-power materials processing averages about 5%-7% yearly, so 2017 was an exceptional year for this segment, but the question is, can this growth continue in 2018?
 

在2017年表現(xiàn)出色的激光市場(chǎng)的第三個(gè)部分是材料加工，特別是由恩耐、IPG、Lumentum、銳科激光、以及相干公司生產(chǎn)的用于材料加工的高功率激光器。作為參考，2017年宏觀材料加工激光器（1KW+）的總體營(yíng)收是23億美元，相比2016年增長(zhǎng)了54%。記住，高功率材料加工一般的年增長(zhǎng)的平均水平在5% - 7%每年，因此2017的增長(zhǎng)是不可思議的，但值得疑問(wèn)的是，2018年還能保持這種增長(zhǎng)水平嗎？
 

If you look at where the growth in KW+ lasers we experienced in 2017, most of it came from Asia (especially China) and Europe, with North America being relatively flat during the period. In Europe and Asia, the majority of laser gains in KW+ laser revenue can be attributed to three factors; 1) increases in laser usage due to laser tools displacing non-laser forms of manufacturing, 2) increases in large manufacturing projects requiring laser tools, and finally, 3) a fear of future laser price increases due to trade restrictions and tariffs. Which of these three factors that had the greatest influence has been the cause for debate, but without question, all played some part. Laser tools are rapidly replacing non-laser tools, a good economy is fueling many projects, and the fear of trade restrictions causing pre-emptive buying.
 

如果你看一下萬(wàn)瓦級(jí)激光器在2017年增長(zhǎng)的地方，會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)絕大多數(shù)增長(zhǎng)來(lái)自亞洲（特別是中國(guó)）和歐洲，而北美只是相對(duì)增長(zhǎng)。在歐洲和亞洲，萬(wàn)瓦級(jí)激光器的營(yíng)收可能得益于三個(gè)因素：1）由于非激光模式的生產(chǎn)被激光設(shè)備所取代，導(dǎo)致激光器的使用量大幅提高；2）大型制造項(xiàng)目的增加需要更多的激光設(shè)備；3）最后，由于擔(dān)憂(yōu)因貿(mào)易限制和關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致的未來(lái)激光器價(jià)格上漲的購(gòu)買(mǎi)。以上這三個(gè)的因素是否對(duì)萬(wàn)瓦級(jí)激光器銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)影響最大一直存在爭(zhēng)議，但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是，它們都在一定程度上有著各自的影響。激光加工正在迅速地取代非激光加工，一個(gè)運(yùn)行良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)肯定會(huì)推動(dòng)很多工業(yè)項(xiàng)目，并且對(duì)貿(mào)易限制的擔(dān)心會(huì)導(dǎo)致先發(fā)制人的購(gòu)買(mǎi)。
 

Because the threat of tariffs and trade restrictions may have played a part in KW+ laser growth in 2017, let’s take a look at what has actually materialized in 2018. On June 15th, President Trump approved a 25% tariff on approximately $50 billion worth of Chinese imports including laser machine tools, optical products, and lasers other than laser diodes. In response, China has published its own list of the U.S. products it plans to place either a 15% tariff or 25% tariff on, and this list is mainly composed of fruits, meats, and types of steel tubing, but not lasers.
 

由于關(guān)稅的威脅和貿(mào)易限制有可能對(duì)2017年萬(wàn)瓦級(jí)激光器增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了關(guān)鍵影響，那讓我們來(lái)看一看2018年實(shí)際出現(xiàn)的情況。6月15日，川普總統(tǒng)批準(zhǔn)了對(duì)價(jià)值約為500億美元的中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品征收25%的關(guān)稅，其中包括激光機(jī)床、光學(xué)產(chǎn)品以及除二極管激光器以外的激光器。作為回?fù)簦袊?guó)政府公布了其計(jì)劃征收15%或25%關(guān)稅的美國(guó)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品目錄，其中主要包括了水果、肉類(lèi)、數(shù)種鋼管等，但唯獨(dú)沒(méi)有激光器。
 

U.S. laser imports from China are generally limited to low-power laser workstations used for marking applications. U.S. laser manufacturers also make similar marking stations, but at higher prices, and some U.S. manufacturers have already exited this business because of Chinese low-priced competition. As for exports of laser from the U.S., more U.S. high-power lasers are exported to China than any other country, but it appears, at least currently, Chinese tariffs will not apply to lasers. In fact, if the Chinese were to impose tariffs on U.S. laser imports, this would likely negatively impact Chinese companies more than U.S. laser companies, because in many cases, U.S. lasers are the only models available at the highest power levels. So to summarize, at least for the time-being, it doesn’t look like tariffs between China and the U.S. are going to have much effect on laser imports or laser exports, but this could change at anytime.
 

美國(guó)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的激光通常僅限于用于打標(biāo)應(yīng)用的低功率激光工作站。美國(guó)激光制造商也生產(chǎn)類(lèi)似的打標(biāo)工作站，但是價(jià)格更高，而且因?yàn)橹袊?guó)同行的低價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，部分美國(guó)打標(biāo)機(jī)制造商早已退出了市場(chǎng)。至于從美國(guó)出口的激光器，中國(guó)是世界上進(jìn)口得最多的，但是至少照目前的情況來(lái)看，中國(guó)的關(guān)稅不會(huì)加到激光器身上。事實(shí)上，假如中國(guó)政府決定對(duì)進(jìn)口美國(guó)的激光器施加關(guān)稅，這很有可能是一發(fā)“七傷拳”一一“七分傷己，三分傷人”。因?yàn)樵诤芏嗲闆r下，美國(guó)的激光器是唯一可用于最高功率水平的激光器。所以總的來(lái)說(shuō)，至少暫時(shí)，中美之間不太會(huì)在激光的關(guān)稅問(wèn)題上做太多文章，然而情況也是隨時(shí)可能變化的。
 

Finally, taking all of the above in-mind, how are high-power laser revenues looking in 2018 compared to 2017 levels? They are growing, but at a much slower growth-rate than what we saw in 2017. This really shouldn’t be surprising, because the rate of growth we saw in 2017 was just not sustainable over longer periods. Currently high-power laser revenue growth looks to be around an annual growth-rate of 12% – 15% for 2018, certainly above average, but much below what we witnessed in 2017. However, the year is not even half over yet, so it is still quite early. After an incredible 2017, my guess is that we might see 2018 high-power laser revenues continue to slow a bit from current levels, still putting 2018 above-average overall. A few negative indicators are being displayed, but nothing to stop the jubilant times of 2017 from spilling over a bit in 2018. Overall, we expect 2018 to be a good year overall, just quite not at the growth-rates we saw in 2017.
 

最后，把以上的全部納入考量，對(duì)比2017年，今年高功率激光器營(yíng)收會(huì)如何？增長(zhǎng)是肯定的，但是會(huì)以一個(gè)比去年慢得多的速度增長(zhǎng)。這真的絲毫不讓人意外，因?yàn)?017年的增長(zhǎng)是不可能在長(zhǎng)時(shí)間里持續(xù)的。目前高功率激光器的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)率似乎在2018年的年增長(zhǎng)率12％-15％左右，肯定高于平均水平，但遠(yuǎn)低于我們?cè)?017年目睹的水平。然而，今年才剛過(guò)半，因此下結(jié)論還為時(shí)尚早。經(jīng)過(guò)瘋狂增長(zhǎng)的2017后，我的猜測(cè)是我們或許會(huì)看到2018高功率激光器營(yíng)收繼續(xù)從目前的水平略微放緩，但仍然使2018年的總體高于平均水平。盡管當(dāng)前有一些負(fù)面消息在影響著增長(zhǎng)，但什么也不能阻止2017的歡騰時(shí)光向2018年溢出一些?？傮w而言，我們預(yù)計(jì)2018年將成為一個(gè)好年頭，只是2017年的增長(zhǎng)今年怕是看不到了。